Update

I am still working on a new version of the Sacred Manuscript but it's been slow going.

Las month I went to Norway for Crystal Palace's UEFA Conference League game at Fredrikstad, and today I am flying to Lublin (in Poland) for the Dynamo Kyiv match. 

In between, my wife's family have some ongoing serious heath issues, and one of my dogs (she's 15) has had a mass removed (at great expense I might add, but hopefully not cancerous) so the bottom line is that Manuscript updates haven't been a priority. 

Hopefully things will calm down soon and I can make solid progress in October. 

Thank you for your patience and stay safe and well. Life is precious.

Summer Slumber

My old friend Dr Tsouts awoke me from my summer slumber with an email asking about an updated version of the Sacred Manuscript or failing that, at least an update for he Premier League Draws.

Slumbering is not an accurate adjective to describe how my summer has been going. It's actually been very busy since the beginning of April when my son and I took a nine day road trip from New Orleans to Savannah. The excesses of that trip had barely worn off when my son dragged me to Cardiff for his stag weekend. 

After surviving that, I was at Wembley to see Crystal Palace win the FA Cup, then came the wedding itself, and a couple of weeks traveling with my wife (who wasn't invited to either the stag weekend or the Cup Final). 

Shortly after that I was climbing Helvellyn, attending my school reunion (50th) and then more recently have had my daughter and three grandchildren (ages 10, 9 and 2) staying with us for four weeks, with my son, wife and his daughter (8) overlapping the last two weeks, so it has all been a bit hectic, which is all a long-winded way of saying that updating the Sacred Manuscript has not been anywhere near the top of my list. 

Enthused by their Cup success, most of my spare time has been spent updating my Crystal Palace spreadsheet which now has every match result and line-up for every one of the 5217 matches in the professional club's history. 

What I am going to do with all this data remains to be seen. I'm pondering a book, but I suspect the market for tidbits such as which Palace player has been substituted most often in FA Cup matches (A: Jean-Phillippe Mateta) or who was the first Crystal Palace player to score in an FA Charity / Community Shield (no, it wasn't Mateta last week) isn't that large. 

Anyway, the last of my family left yesterday so once we have repaired the house I shall be back to looking at sports investing which hasn't been the priority in life that it once was. Unsurprisingly my weight has suffered under this barrage of social activity but researching Draws and losing weight aren't mutually exclusive and I have promised Dr Tsouts that I would look at the Premier League Draws this week. Unfortunately he has cautioned that:

I am afraid that draw system at least for big 6 was not profitable last year ( while opposing the home team was good idea) but I will skip the first matchday and wait for your suggestions!

With only 30 Big Six matches a season, some variance is to be expected in such a system, but I shall take a look. The performances of Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United were more Big Sixteen than Big Six and that may well not have helped but I haven't looked closely into the matter yet. 

I did see some posts on Twitter from Joseph Buchdahl @12Xpert  that suggested Pinnacle's Closing Odds will no longer be available from this season which would be disappointing, but there are other options.

Equal Rights, Spurs Draw-less, MLB Updates

For any followers applying the Sacred Manuscript's "International Tournament Elimination Matches Draw System" strategy in the ongoing UEFA Women's Euro 2025, a profit is already guaranteed with two Draws from the three matches with no odds-on favourite, or three Draws from six matches if you blindly back the Draw in all matches.

Including the Women's World Cup matches, these tournaments since 2009 have ROIs of 22.3% (for the no-odds-on system / 42 matches) and 7.6% in all 86 matches.  

Spain are odds-on to beat England in the Final this Sunday.

From an investment perspective, the Women's tournaments overall are a little behind those of the Men, where the respective ROI's in Euros and World Cups are 42% and 35%, but results from the most recent three tournaments show ROIs on a par with those of the Men at 56% and 34% respectively. 

The MLB season had its annual All-Star break a few days ago, and the season has been mixed so far for the systems in the Sacred Manuscript. For the second consecutive season the All-Star Break systems had a loss 

The Totals System did very well in 2024 with a 64-46-3 record (14.93u / 13% ROI) and so far in 2025 also with an even better 60-38-0 record (19.12u / 20% ROI), but the Road Davids system has gone south in a hurry from a profit of 14.84u in 2024 to a loss this season to date of 21.99u. 

With the new football season just around the corner, I'll be updating the numbers for the various systems in the Sacred Manuscript. Backing the Draw in Big 6 matches last season was again profitable although Tottenham Hotspur managed to avoid the draw in all their 10 matches. 

In the traditional world of finance, the biggest news since my travels was the spectacular breakout for Bitcoin. Back in November I wrote:

Bitcoin did reach a new high and is currently around $77,000. The S&P500 also set a new high going above 6,000 for the first time ever on Friday.

That $77k is currently $119k and for the S&P 500 index it is at an all-time high of 6,379 right now. Unfortunately $TSLA has taken a dive today after another weak quarter for sales, a comment that Tesla would “probably could have a few rough quarters” and some (once again) rather vague forecasts around its robotaxi service from Elon Musk. 

Thunder Rolls

I've been a little distracted after all the excitement of May. My father-in-law is struggling with his health right now, after a knee replacement surgery that has not gone well. It needs to be re-done but first an an ongoing unidentified bacterial infection needs to resolved. 

My wife and I are now in California providing moral support, although the latter falls mostly on her.  I do have a 50th school reunion to attend in July so I will be leaving her for a while next week while I climb up Helvellyn - weather permitting - for the first time since 1973 before meeting up with at least one of the two friends I did that climb with. 

With my enthusiasm through the roof after the club's first major trophy, I've also been spending literally dozens of hours updating my Crystal Palace spreadsheet which has grown somewhat from my original goal. 

It now includes every single team lineup for the professional club dating back to the 1905-06 Southern League Second Division and through to the end of last season, which is exactly 5,201 matches and 61,953 player entries, not to mention the 7,252 goal scorers, and I've added two new categories to accommodate the Community Shield and Europa League games.

It's all very exciting and I am putting my retirement to good use, but once again, sports investing has remained a secondary activity, and I still need to update the 'official' results for the 2024-25 football systems.

In the NBA Finals, it's a Game 7 tonight - Oklahoma City Thunder versus Indiana Pacers.

Neither team has ever won the NBA Finals, although the franchise now in Oklahoma City did win one as the Seattle SuperSonics back in 1979.

The last Finals Game 7 was in 2016, and this was a rare win for the Road (Away) team which has won just 4 of 19 and just once in the seven games since since 1978.

Game 7s in the Final are a lot rarer now than they used to be. 

In the 1950s there were five. In the 1960s there were four.  In the 1970s three, the 1980s two, and just one each in the 1990s and the noughties. 

Looking at 'recent' spreads (i.e. those this century), in the most recent Game 7 (2016) the Cleveland Cavaliers were 5-point underdogs against the Golden State Warriors, and they won the game by four points.

In the 2013 Finals, the Miami Heat were 6-point favorites against the San Antonio Spurs and covered winning by seven points.

In 2010 the Los Angeles Lakers were 7-point favorites against the Boston Celtics  and won by four, while in 2005 Finals the Spurs won by seven as 5.5-point favorites against the Detroit Pistons. 

The spread is currently 7 and with the Thunder seemingly taking it very easy in Game 6 - they lost by 17 after being down by 31 at one point - I'm expecting them to repeat their Game 7 performance of the Conference Semifinals this year when they easily defeated (by 32 points) the Denver Nuggets in another home Game 7. 

May 2025 - A Month to Remember

I took the liberty of titling my last post 'Memorable May' and while it would have been memorable even with different outcomes, the month turned out to be one of the best of my life, and that is written with no exaggeration.

My son's wedding went off without a hitch at the Gorse Hill Hotel in Woking, and he and his bride are currently honeymooning in our ancestral homeland of Italy, and of course after supporting Crystal Palace for 58 years, they finally won a major trophy, and I am now prepared to concede that the Zenith Data Systems Cup was not really that major.

The stag weekend was in Cardiff - some drinking, darts, and rugby (Bristol v Bath) were all activities I could keep up with the younger ones at, the bubble football, not so much. At 68, trying to stand up without using your arms while enclosed in a giant plastic bubble isn't too easy but I survived and wasn't one of the two casualties of the weekend who were unable to process their alcohol the normal way. My son (also not one of the casualties) spent Saturday walking around Cardiff and watching rugby dressed as Woody from Toy Story, a look he carried off quite well I must say.

I then spent a few days in North Devon, walking to the top of the Little and Great Hangman hills near Combe Martin and staying by the harbour in Ilfracombe. The low point was finding out that Ye Olde Globe in Berrynarbor (established in 1675) is now closed after 350 years.

I also took my wife to the New Forest for a few days. She'd never been before, and I'd actually not been for many years, and it's really rather nice there.

Back to the FA Cup Final and my son and his daughter were both at Covent Garden and later the game with me, and with the latter having seen her first match in September, I fear the bar has been set a little high for her future years of support.

Both the wedding and the FA Cup Final were days I shall never forget. I was at the 1990 Final and Replay, as well as the 2016 Final and having been close to winning on both occasions, and playing one of the top clubs, it was with hope rather than expectation that I went to the Final. 

It was only when the clock showed 30 seconds left of stoppage time and Palace had a goal kick that I allowed myself to believe that we were actually going to win the FA Cup.

Tears were shed I am not ashamed to say. Whatever happens in the future, this will be the only time Palace will win their first major trophy and it meant everything. Even just writing this makes me emotional.

A thank you to Peter, Hikbuzz and Weirimdi for taking the time to comment on my last post or send me a message.

Hikbuzz wrote in early May:

Take it easy Cassini and have a great May

and after the FA Cup win followed up with:

Congrats on the FA Cup win, must have been so great to witness this first hand. I hope to emulate this myself as I am going to Munich on the 31st to support PSG in our quest for what would be our first Champions League win!

Much appreciated, and I am sure he enjoyed his first Champions League win, which was a little more comfortable than Palace's!

Given how good PSG have looked this season, I'm not sure 17th placed Tottenham Hotspur will be too excited about playing the Super Cup match next season.

Peter wrote:

Congrats to Crystal Palace and great to see your long term loyalty rewarded.
I'm sure you're still enjoying it. Not exactly the result we Sacred Manuscript subscribers were hoping for but ... oh well!

While I am still enjoying it, it is true that major finals often offer value for the Draw, but none of UEFA's tournaments hit this season, and only the Community Shield for the English matches. Oh well indeed... 

Did someone mention the Community Shield? Liverpool v Crystal Palace in August, the latter club with a chance to add a second major trophy to their collection... 

With the football season now over, I'll be working on the updates for the Sacred Manuscript. 

Peter identified a possible conflict with the recommendations for the Europa League Final (did I mention that Palace will be competing in this tournament neat season?) and the Europa Conference League Final and I'll make sure I clear this up. Thank you Peter for your input.

Regarding my minor skin cancer issue, Weirimdi also commented:

I wish you all the best. As someone who works in cancer research I can tell you that early discovery leads to very good outcome.

I am now required to have a full skin check every six months, which is a very minor inconvenience given the upside of any early discoveries as Weirimdi says. 

Back to Palace for a moment, and one of my long time friends who was a little older than me and a Palace supporter since the early 1960's passed away before the Semi-Final from prostate cancer, so get that 'finger up the botty' as one of my friends puts it, although these days that's not routine procedure. But get it checked anyway! 

Again, thank you for the comment Wierimdi, which is much appreciated.

It'll be a busy month for the Sacred Manuscript.

As I mentioned, the football season is now over following Oldham Athletic's win over Southend United yesterday.

In the USA, the NHL Stanley Cup Finals and the NBA Finals (both best of seven) both begin this week.

On Wednesday the NHL Final opens with the Florida Panthers playing the Edmonton Oilers who are hoping to become the first Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup since 1993 and are favourites to do so.

On Thursday in the NBA, the Finals begin with the Oklahoma City Thunder big favourites to win against the Indiana Pacers.

The WNBA is also is full flow now, as well as MLB of course. 

As I fully anticipated, May was not a good month for my weight. Getting out of my routine with wedding related activities, football matches, catching up with old friends meaning I drank beer on 27 days, and a lot on a few of these, means I am back to where I was at the end of last year. June will be a lot different.

Financially, May wasn't such a great month either. I helped my son out with his wedding bar tab and upgraded his gift from the toaster I was hoping to get away with, and my former employer's stock price continued to decline to the point where none of my options are now in the money. 

Some individual holdings had a good month to help limit the damage - Tesla was up 23%, Boeing was up 13% and Palantir up 11% but with the news that Warren Buffett is retiring as Berkshire Hathaway's CEO at the end of 2025, Berkshire Hathaway's stock price slipped by 5.5%. 

Overall I was down 1.8% on the month, the fourth consecutive losing month which is a first for me and hopefully a last, but probably not. Good luck to you all in June. 

Memorable May

Just a quick update to say that I had to have a minor procedure for some skin cancer which wasn't great news but could have been a lot worse, and that I shall be away from home for the next four weeks with a hectic schedule which now includes a trip to Wembley for the FA Cup Final. Third time lucky I hope, as Crystal Palace have been my club since my first game in April 1967, and to win the FA Cup would be very special. 

I'll be at the Nottingham Forest game tomorrow with my son and one of my granddaughters, before heading to a secret destination for his stag weekend. It's a secret from him, although I know where it will be. A few days in North Devon after that, then the Final, another home game versus Wolves, my son's wedding day and finally a few days in the Kent countryside at my sister's place to unwind from it all. 

May will be a memorable month, and hopefully better than April which was not a good month overall - either financially or health-wise - although the monetary losses were put into perspective by the latter and isolated to my former employer reporting results which the market did not like, and as a result most of my options are now currently out of the money. Hopefully the market has overreacted, but a six figure loss on paper isn't great in retirement. 

My son's wedding gift has been downgraded to a toaster.

By the time I return, the football season will be over, the NBA and NHL seasons will be almost over, and we'll have some MLB data to take a look at so for sports betting updates check back in a month or so. Other life events mean that betting won't be top of my agenda for a while, but good luck to those of you for whom it is. 

Country Roads, Eggs and Baskets

I managed to survive the six-state road trip with my son mentioned in my previous post. After flying into New Orleans, Louisiana and spending a couple of days there we drove to Savannah, Georgia stopping overnight in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, Nashville, Tennessee, Asheville, North Carolina, and Charleston, South Carolina. We were able to catch the College Basketball Championship game between Florida and Houston in Nashville shortly before we were hauled up on stage to sing along to, in my case, Take Me Home, Country Roads and for my son, The Gambler. 

All in all a great trip although it was disturbing that I was regularly the oldest patron in the bar, with another highlight being the announcement somewhere that someone was celebrating their 70th birthday which made me feel quite young. The last photo on the final night in Savannah was taken at 2:36am so I kept up pretty well I feel! 

My Fitbit and Oura metrics took a hit, as did my scales and wallet, but all bar my wallet are slowly returning to normal. 

The financial markets were extremely volatile while we were away and it was one of those trips I returned home from with no idea whether I was up or down, but unfortunately I was down. Tesla was bouncing around all over the place, up more than 23% on Wednesday as we drove through the Hurricane Helene damaged roads into Asheville, and my former company also had a good run which helped to offset some of the broader market losses. 

I met with my Financial Advisor on Monday and was pleased to hear that I've not messed up (yet) although he felt I was a little aggressive on growth stocks and should consider moving some money into dividend stocks, which is something I was already doing and have mentioned here before, but maybe I'm not doing it fast enough for his liking. 

Back to College Basketball and with the season over, we can look at how that Sacred Manuscript systems. The Small Favourites had a 52-55 losing record ATS for a small loss, but when limited to the top six conferences, the record was 9-8 but the totals had a losing 7-10 record. 

The Conference Tournament System fared much better with a 71-66 record, and the NCAA Tournament results were even better at 22-12 making it a profitable season overall. 

The NBA Regular Season has also ended, with the Playoffs starting today. With Road Favourites not performing as expected this season, we're looking at a loss overall but the Totals Systems have been profitable, notably the Overs on High Totals which delivered a 123-110-1 record. More to come when the playoffs are over but I think one lesson might well be not to base too many systems on one parameter, even if it has been a profitable one over the years. Something about 'eggs and baskets' which applies to more than just NBA betting.